Thursday, 23 June 2016

Brexit ...inflexion point....

Historic moment for world. Brexit has won. Is this a canary in the mine? This really could be the precursor of many "break with the past" events to come. The various facets of this move are numbing. It will have ramifications on US elections, existence of EU, financial markets, globalisation, unipolar world....

The EU could start disintegrating with elections looming up in France and Germany. For the past forty years or so unified Europe had become a powerful economic entity which was an ally of US which during this period was losing its position of strength. This was a period when Japan and China rose to the top tiers of the global economic platform. Along with this there was the weakening of the giant USSR and its fragmentation. Russia emerged a much weaker opponent of USA. So there was a move from a bipolar to a unipolar world. Then with the burgeoning growth of China there was more multi polar world.

Presently in USA there is a contentious election with two weak unpopular candidates. Trump like a veritable mad man has been spewing hate and anti immigrant vitriolics. The deep malaise has been the unemployment situation, rising inequalities, rise in immigrants, adverse terms of trade.... With very little institutional support Trump has whipped up considerable support which borders on racism. America is a country of immigrants. Hence within this immigrant society some claim to be more equal than others....

Again the seeds of its unemployment were spawned by its rise to becoming the richest nation on earth. Rising incomes made manufacturing unprofitable. Capitalism dictated that in the search for returns on investment, the cost of labour had to be reduced. Hence manufacturing shifted to China and elsewhere. The middle-class of US shrank. In the process jobs declined along with the rise despair, drugs and violence....

These forty years or so of EU saw the ups and downs of global economic stability. During the past 4/5 years or so large swathes of Europe have started tethering closer to bankruptsy. Debt had ballooned all over the world more so in Europe and USA. Europe witnessed Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy collapsing under unmanageable debt. USA too has run up the highest debt levels anywhere. The largest banks of the western world too are under lot of stress. The financial system too is labouring under crises in currency, derivatives, stock and credit markets....

During this period climate change has intensified. This has lead to widespread famines and social unrest. Terror too has rapidly spread its tentacles especially after the oil crises of the 70s. The first world lead by US tried to control the oil rich gulf countries and also got involved in few wars there. This possibly fuelled and accelerated the growth of fundamentalist terror. The past few years have seen a sharp increase in migrants in Europe and into other parts of the world from Middle East, Africa...This massive migrants crises highlighted the inequalities in the developed world, burden on their already strained financial and fiscal systems, unemployment situation....this has also given rise to racism and blame on open arms policy for refugees...

Indeed very interesting times globally...defining times...momentous times...world is changing and changing very fast....brexit is the tip of the iceberg....this much and no further...the developed world has started saying...the right wing is on the ascendant in the most of the developed world....autarky on the rise... isolationism.... racism... bankrupt economies... Climate change...inequalities... Brexit indeed tip of the iceberg... 

Post Covid World

Covid has suddenly thrust the planet to the inflexion point. It is a final wake up call for humanity. Civilisation has been on a suicidal ...