We are indeed living in surreal defining times...some kind of an inflexion point in socio - eco - climate history…. In so many dimensions and planes this real time online human / earth ecosystem is evolving...at a frenetic pace…. Most of the advanced world mature economies are mired in deep debt and very low / no growth comatose conditions.. Climate change too is surely and steadily witnessing a rising frequency of extreme events… natural resources are also depleting fast….
In these momentous times… in most countries people getting tired of their worsening financial shape, unemployment, migrants crisis, declining economies.. Want change in the elected governments …. Exit from existing economic blocks... trade agreements… scores of countries have seen new leaders and political parties coming to power… global economic power equations are changing.. Its no longer an uni or bi polar world… unipolar since 19th century till 1950s..with Britain / UK dominating till the first world war...thereafter usa till 1960s… when soviet union became a superpower… still usa was the economic powerhouse of the world till the 1980s… when japan rose to prominence…
but by the 90s japan entered its long endless tunnel of economic stagnation… but again japan is an extremely insular closed society… a kind of incestuous society with no foreigners or immigrants… like hitler’s pure aryan race… hence they reached the limits of their growth … now they have reached zero population growth… henceforth they will experience decline in population at the rate of one million per year from a peak of 128 million...hence gradually their gdp will decline…
In the western world europe and usa were enjoying sound economic expansion till 2000.. Though anemic compared to some emerging / brics economies in their growth spurt years… but this was not to continue for long.. Burgeoning debts… declining growth rates.. Which they desperately tried to whip up by increasing immigration… but the economic models mostly capitalistic started to flag… increasing unemployment..interest rates plunging below zero..
Since the late 1990s China had emerged as a major power... an economic powerhouse riding on a strong demographic dividend.. Made its mark felt.. And a multi polar world was created after the break up of the soviet union …. European union started breaking apart with greece collapse .. several countries started feeling the pinch of debt and slow / no growth … then came the inflexion point brexit… few other countries in europe had changes in government.. Even merkel is finding the carpet being pulled under her ….
A lot changed after 9/11… rise of terror in most parts of the world…. Rise of isis… and then of late the migrants crises in europe due to syria and africa...islamic radical terrorists have made the presence felt in usa, europe, africa and asia…
Its against this backdrop we should analyse the current us election... us has lost its preeminent position in the world.. Run up 20 trillion debt …. Mounting violence...gun shootings...drugs … heroin epidemic...trigger happy police downing blacks… bankrupt states with no money to pay public servants…nexus between corrupt politicians, banks, regulators, corporations..... terror attacks.. Influx of illegal immigrants...climate change extreme events… societal upheavals like marriage becoming a fading institution...the litany goes on and on...the socio pol eco system is spinning out of control basically because the root causes which have led to them remain largely unaddressed… these issues have been dealt copiously through my chants/rants in my blog newgrammaroflife.blogspot.com...root causes like high energy / carbon lifestyles...capitalistic / technological advances which have spawned and fueled a giant consumer society forever wanting new things funded by debt...countries addicted to deficit financing because of living beyond one's means leading to unmanageable debts...big bank / capital market / property driven bubbles in all asset classes...rising inequalities...and so on…
Vast swathes of the populace in us have been disenfranchised … orphaned...swamped by waves of new immigrants who are highly educated and get top salaries on one hand and swarming illegal migrants who are stealing their jobs by accepting far lower wages, rising inequalities...to make matters worse…. due to high cost of production and becoming uncompetitive us companies have moved elsewhere like mexico, china….
Its is precisely due to this angst and uncertainty there was a vacuum which trump has filed...otherwise there is no other way anyone can explain this phenomenon where a playboy billionaire businessman with zilch political experience comes out of nowhere and commands 42% of election polls...by spending only 20% or so of clinton’s well oiled election apparatus... funded by the richest and most powerful people of usa…madly supported by 80% of the big media..despised by leaders of his republican party….indeed strange…all the more interesting as the clintons are supported by the present government, judiciary, large corporations, media, wall street, big money, bushes, top republicans….the entire establishment….a tremendous advantage….indeed the dice is heavily loaded against the anti establishment pro change messiah trump….his rallies are angst ridden rants with loud participation by his fans...
We are witnessing a titanic struggle for keeping the reins of power and the economy in the hands of the establishment….while the dispossessed, the deplorables, less educated….are rising in revolt and rallying under trump inspite of his billionaire status….this scraggly lot led by the quixotic trump...battling against the windmills of the mighty establishment..the capitalists who will go to any extent to keep control of the country...though the economy is in deep shambles…. no one wants to undergo any radical surgery to plug the haemorrhage and set right the failed system….which has bleed to 20 trillion now..and growing by over 2 trillion plus per year... spiralling violence..mounting mental illness..climate change...
Even if trump wins...it will not be easy to set right the economy and all that ails it….indeed a catch 22 situation...it is indeed most surreal the immense armageddon being played out real time online in usa watched and followed by the world….a 24/7 trumpman reality show...basically the americans have to decide between change and status quo...they will get the government they deserve...the media and polls are biased...one really does not know the truth...each camp comes out with results favourable to it...the debates.. too.. are biased against trump..in spite of the clinton leaning hosts...trump came out a winner in the second debate...he has taken the battle into the enemy territory..the establishment is aghast with his aggressive style and fight back...no one had ever talked to the royalty...the clintons...like that...tectonic stuff...the genteel establishment shocked and embarrassed ...while the under trodden are ecstatic ..the results range the spectrum with the slick cnn on one side and infowars at the other extreme...with incendiary stuff…
There is no doubt if there had been a free election with level playing field trump would have won handsomely….inspite of it he is waging a lone battle with only pence by his side and his family...while the clintons have the entire apparatus of the establishment at their disposal...the next 25 days are going to be most interesting with no holds barred mudslinging...if one were to analyse the struggle...few happenings are baffling me...if the polls show clinton ahead by 4 points or so...and more importantly well over the 272 mark…..i really do not know how trump is able to garner record crowds of over 20,000 at his probably half his rallies.. While clinton is struggling to speak to 2000 people...does this indicate some groundswell tsunami on november 8?......another brexit...a powershift...even after his shocking locker room banter...trump is speaking to record rallies in pennsylvania... anything can happen in the life of a nation from now till nov 8...but overthrowing the well entrenched empire will be well nigh impossible... america will be the real loser if hillary wins...
