Trump’s unenviable task of reviving a nation in decline ….

..genesis of anti-establishment

Strange are the ways socio economic compulsions work. During the 60s when i was in my teens… there was an overpowering anti establishment wave in the US… it was the age of revolution.. grass.. woodstock… rock n roll… dylan.. stones..india… nepal… youth revolted against the existing mores of society...wars in korea...vietnam...mccarthyism..america policing the world...lies which the government told its citizens...we in india also went through this tumultuous anti-establishment phase..with the birth of naxalites…

The 60s and the 70s were rocked by the flower power movement of a sizeable part of the youth in america..the spock generation started rebelling against the overarching establishment which felt it was their bounden duty to police the world and fight wars against the so called evils of communism...it was true that communist regimes were were muzzling the freedom of their people...had dictators as their heads...like in the erstwhile soviet union, china and a handful of other regimes…

But the 60s rebellion whimpered out...the pothead generation grew up and gradually integrated with mainstream america...took jobs...became successful...liked to wave their liberal and left leaning credentials...formed part of the democratic bulwark and the establishment...all of us idolised the kennedys...camelot...their martyrdom lent a hallow to the kennedys...only later we became critical and it became common knowledge that the kennedys were a royalty with special privileges...cavorting with nymphs in the white house pools...with marilyn monroe… scions of a wealthy kennedy family which had created wealth through the armaments industry...as establishment as the rockefellers..only they were not part of the GOP… they were democratic…

This 60s liberal generation also spawned the clintons...his famous line “i did not inhale it” when asked whether he smoked cannabis… this talented family took over usa in 1992...after the 80s reagan years… they more or less continued in the footsteps of the reagan's GOP policies...since the reagans… who lowered taxes.. inequalities in US started soaring… violence too.. all these intensified through the bush..clinton..bush...obama years… crony capitalism prospered to new heights… the economic bubble expanded..first signs of imbalances surfaced when enron and worldcom collapsed in the early 2000s…(pl see my blogpost on newgrammaroflife.blogpost.com dated 15-5-2014 which was written in 2002 titled MILLENIUM MUSINGS: Pressures of Modern Civilisation) ...these were brushed off as minor blips…

..too much debt

Giant corporations leveraged higher and higher and also several economies...wall street too leveraged to stratospheric levels of debt-equity ...sometimes to insane levels of above 30 … other exotic weapons of mass destruction called derivatives and collateral backed securities also proliferated.. aided and abetted by the FED, SEC, credit raters...then came the financial meltdown of 2008.. came along obama..and all he did was to give a lifeline to these scheming get-rich bankers from tax payers money.. once these evil monsters revived a bit...they relapsed back to their devious ways of crooking the usa and rest of the world...now several banks like deutsche bank etc are drowning in derivatives and are in deep coma in the icu..on govt ventilators…

Migrants crisis has rocked europe and usa… unemployment rocketing higher… it is at this juncture that donald trump has arrived like a white messiah to save the american people from the crony obama-clinton-goldman sachs-wall street grip...ironically under the flag of the conservative republicans...while the so called left liberal clintons are in bed with the crony bankers...all the more ironical because donald’s own party apparatchiks had all but abandoned him during the run up to the elections.. he was treated like a pariah..

Sad even sanders … was bought over by the clintons..even the obamas did about 40 rallies for the failing clinton campaign...which was unprecedented in history..in a rigged election where clintons with their money power from special interests and superior election machinery ...took busloads of voters from their homes to poll centers for early voting… apart from other help of the state machinery sanctioned by obama...even 80% of media shut out trump...looked as it was an election in india’s notorious backward states where there is rampant poll rigging sometimes….

In the end donald outwitted hillary ...even after spending a fraction on the election compared to hillary ...who was supported by the entire corporate america, it titans of silicon valley...truth prevailed...and unlikely donald..the joker of the pack.. not even supported by his own GOP fully….pulled off the impossible ….

But trump faces a near impossible task of reviving a nation which sadly is in deep comatose state on life support systems...even a hillary win would not have helped one jot ….crippling debt which has more than doubled during obama...highest ever inequalities...soaring levels of people under food stamps, 45 mn below poverty line, searing inner cities violence, heroin addiction, record illegal immigrants pouring in through open borders, refugees from isis infested syria, homegrown terror, lowest levels of labour participation rates, stubborn unemployment, crumbling healthcare, ever increasing gun violence, climate change induced extreme weather events ...which the GOP does not believe in.. rising mental illness...obesity.. crumbling infrastructure..79k bridges in urgent need of repairs...potholes in roads...stuck in meaningless wars abroad.. Isis expanding footprint...russia flexing its muscles...chinese dragon breathing fire over south china seas…

Rest of the world is also in crisis mode...europe is in tatters...only the brics and other emerging markets are in growth mode...but overall global gloom and doom...growth rates are at all time lows...rising protectionism and autarky… europe under siege of migrants...climate change threatening to change economic geography of huge swathes of the world...isis spreading to 30 countries...

Indeed a daunting task trying to pull US out of this morass...a nation riddled with contradictions...high labour costs which has made it unprofitable to manufacture in usa...hence reviving manufacturing profitably in usa seems to be contradictory with high labour costs...again to prop up profits...several companies have outsourced their back offices to low cost countries...deep nexus between health insurance companies, hospitals, doctors, pharmaceutical companies, FDA, diagnostic providers, surgeons… similarly in the food industry nexus between FDA, food research, agriculture, food industry, hotels, restaurants….

..indeed surreal times like flogging a dead horse..will be most interesting how this story spins out.. the trump reality show… sit back… take out the popcorn… and watch the next four years and decade unfold...not only usa but the rest of the world since we live on an interdependent planet…...societal decline and sickness… mounting economic woes .. finally the biggest game changer will be climate collapse…. with mother earth gasping for breath as the anthropocene acts of humans are increasing exponentially….

titanic struggle for soul of america....

A titanic struggle is waging on for the control of the eco soul mind of America between the deplorables lead by don quixote and powerful ruling class. The inner core of the empire is rotten. So ironical that both sides are so steeped in excesses of all the vices of an effete society.. but hurling accusations at each other both of which are guilty of. Indeed very sad that the age of great leaders is over...perhaps only Modi of India is the last of the Mohicans...

It's a veritable Hobson's choice for the people. Both sides are mired in controversies. One side supports big corporations and banks...the deep state which controls america through its tentacles.. is for wars across the world.. addicted to debt... while the other wants america to spend less on costly defence agreements with rich countries .. stop illegal immigrants... better relations with russia...and thinks climate change is a hoax..,

However both sides are votaries of a capitalistic society .... a system which is under seize in all the richest countries...with surmounting unmanageable debt ....

Day by day this ultimate war for the control of the world richest country... which is on the decline... is becoming more and more surreal ... with extreme media of both sides publishing their biased stories..

sadly a lot of truth about the American government and Hillary which has been released by wiki leaks is not being covered by 80% of the press which includes the most powerful media barons.. plus there are publications which are controlled by the richest people in the world who have also contributed to Clinton foundation.. like Carlos Slim...who are hurling unverified sexual accusations against trump... while bill's sexual victims who have come forward are not covered ..imperial rome at its peak...

Indeed a strange brew of events... wonder whether all this is at all affecting decisions of the voters..  america is a broken society where family and marriage are fading institutions ... more than 50% of mothers are single ... and more than 50% of marriages have failed... in these times these kind of sexual misdemeanours really do not make much of an impact...

No body really expects trump to be an angel or a choir boy... especially with a playboy billionaire past... similarly there are innumerable sexual escapades of bill Clinton...which are kept under wraps by the loyal mainstream media... hence I doubt whether all these highly charged innuendos have made any significant impact on the voter minds...

its just heaps of scurrilous accusations which has been discounted by most people... today most people across the world thanks to Hollywood and american tv soap operas have come to accept these frailties of human nature.. and become thick skinned to these rantings....

People have also become impervious to the political and financial corruption which associated with most politicians ... indeed a strange state of being where nothing titillates or shocks most people now... so the battle lines have been drawn ... a bare 2 - 4% difference in polls separates the 2 major candidates... which is well within the margin of error...most of the establishment and media have written off trump...

but still trump is drawing record crowds day after day even after clinton has dropped all the bombs she has....he gave an impassioned speech the other day when he challenged hillary to a drug test... some said trump was high on cocaine.. even that will not stick on teflon coated donald trump.. trump also pleaded with crowd that this was possibly america's last chance to vote for a change ...and also the world's last chance to restructure the deep economic imbalances which are plaguing the global economy...

forces of protectionism and autarky are spreading across the anaemic western world...forces which have gained strength after brexit... winds of change are buffeting the world.. capitalism is in the throes of a major economic depression and downturn dragged down by quagmire of deep ever mounting debt... unemployment .... closure of manufacturing and losing business to lower cost emerging markets... looming everywhere ...

all this has made people restless ... wanting change ... distrustful of politicians who they feel have been responsible for this current state of affairs.. though actually what has led to this is their failed free market economic and business models which are based on hyper competition and have reached their  limits of growth ... symptoms of post mature capitalist societies.... zero growth and negative interest rates...

added to this rising terror and migrants crises.... most advanced economies have become cauldrons of racism, violence, poverty, homelessness, broken marriages, heroin addiction, vandalism, gun shootings... a large dispossessed populace has emerged with nothing left to lose... archetypal Rolling Stones street fight man... and I can't get no satisfaction...time and patience are running away... time is ripe for revolution...



      

The Rise of the Deplorables….

We are indeed living in surreal defining times...some kind of an inflexion point in socio - eco - climate history…. In so many dimensions and planes this real time online human / earth ecosystem is evolving...at  a frenetic pace…. Most of the advanced world mature economies are mired in deep debt and very low / no growth comatose conditions.. Climate change too is surely and steadily witnessing a rising frequency of extreme events… natural resources are also depleting fast….

In these momentous times… in most countries people getting tired of their worsening financial shape, unemployment, migrants crisis, declining economies.. Want change in the elected governments …. Exit from existing economic blocks... trade agreements… scores of countries have seen new leaders and political parties coming to power… global economic power equations are changing.. Its no longer an uni or bi polar world… unipolar since 19th century till 1950s..with Britain / UK dominating till the first world war...thereafter usa till 1960s… when soviet union became a superpower… still usa was the economic powerhouse of the world till the 1980s… when japan rose to prominence…

but by the 90s japan entered its long endless tunnel of economic stagnation… but again japan is an extremely insular closed society… a kind of incestuous society with no foreigners or immigrants… like hitler’s pure aryan race… hence they reached the limits of their growth … now they have reached zero population growth… henceforth they will experience decline in population at the rate of one million per year from a peak of 128 million...hence gradually their gdp will decline…

In the western world europe and usa were enjoying sound economic expansion till 2000.. Though anemic compared to some emerging / brics economies in their growth spurt years… but this was not to continue for long.. Burgeoning debts… declining growth rates.. Which they desperately tried to whip up by increasing immigration… but the economic models mostly capitalistic started to flag… increasing unemployment..interest rates plunging below zero..

Since the late 1990s China had emerged as a major power... an economic powerhouse riding on a strong demographic dividend.. Made its mark felt.. And a multi polar world was created after the break up of the soviet union  …. European union started breaking apart with greece collapse .. several countries started feeling the pinch of debt and slow / no growth … then came the inflexion point brexit… few other countries in europe had changes in government.. Even merkel is finding the carpet being pulled under her ….

A lot changed after 9/11… rise of terror in most parts of the world…. Rise of isis… and then of late the migrants crises in europe due to syria and africa...islamic radical terrorists have made the presence felt in usa, europe, africa and asia…

Its against this backdrop we should analyse the current us election... us has lost its preeminent position in the world.. Run up 20 trillion debt …. Mounting violence...gun shootings...drugs … heroin epidemic...trigger happy police downing blacks… bankrupt states with no money to pay public servants…nexus between corrupt politicians, banks, regulators, corporations..... terror attacks.. Influx of illegal immigrants...climate change extreme events… societal upheavals like marriage becoming a fading institution...the litany goes on and on...the socio pol eco system is spinning out of control basically because the root causes which have led to them remain largely unaddressed… these issues have been dealt copiously through my chants/rants in my blog newgrammaroflife.blogspot.com...root causes like high energy / carbon lifestyles...capitalistic / technological advances which have spawned and fueled a giant consumer society forever wanting new things funded by debt...countries addicted to deficit financing because of living beyond one's means leading to unmanageable debts...big bank / capital market / property driven bubbles in all asset classes...rising inequalities...and so on…

Vast swathes of the populace in us have been disenfranchised … orphaned...swamped by waves of new immigrants who are highly educated and get top salaries on one hand and swarming illegal migrants who are stealing their jobs by accepting far lower wages, rising inequalities...to make matters worse…. due to high cost of production and becoming uncompetitive us companies have moved elsewhere like mexico, china….

Its is precisely due to this angst and uncertainty there was a vacuum which trump has filed...otherwise there is no other way anyone can explain this phenomenon where a playboy billionaire businessman with zilch political experience comes out of nowhere and commands 42% of election polls...by spending only 20% or so of clinton’s well oiled election apparatus... funded by the richest and most powerful people of usa…madly supported by 80% of the big media..despised by leaders of his republican party….indeed strange…all the more interesting as the clintons are supported by the present government, judiciary, large corporations, media, wall street, big money, bushes, top republicans….the entire establishment….a tremendous advantage….indeed the dice is heavily loaded against the anti establishment pro change messiah trump….his rallies are angst ridden rants with loud participation by his fans...

We are witnessing a titanic struggle for keeping the reins of power and the economy in the hands of the establishment….while the dispossessed, the deplorables, less educated….are rising in revolt and rallying under trump inspite of his billionaire status….this scraggly lot led by the quixotic trump...battling against the windmills of the mighty establishment..the capitalists who will go to any extent to keep control of the country...though the economy is in deep shambles…. no one wants to undergo any radical surgery to plug the haemorrhage and set right the failed system….which has bleed to 20 trillion now..and growing by over 2 trillion plus per year... spiralling violence..mounting mental illness..climate change...

Even if trump wins...it will not be easy to set right the economy and all that ails it….indeed a catch 22 situation...it is indeed most surreal the immense armageddon being played out real time online in usa watched and followed by the world….a 24/7 trumpman reality show...basically the americans have to decide between change and status quo...they will get the government they deserve...the media and polls are biased...one really does not know the truth...each camp comes out with results favourable to it...the debates.. too.. are biased against trump..in spite of the clinton leaning hosts...trump came out a winner in the second debate...he has taken the battle into the enemy territory..the establishment is aghast with his aggressive style and fight back...no one had ever talked to the royalty...the clintons...like that...tectonic stuff...the genteel establishment shocked and embarrassed ...while the under trodden are ecstatic ..the results range the spectrum with the slick cnn  on one side and infowars at the other extreme...with incendiary stuff…

There is no doubt if there had been a free election with level playing field trump would have won handsomely….inspite of it he is waging a lone battle with only pence by his side and his family...while the clintons have the entire apparatus of the establishment at their disposal...the next 25 days are going to be most interesting with no holds barred mudslinging...if one were to analyse the struggle...few happenings are baffling me...if the polls show clinton ahead by 4 points or so...and more importantly well over the 272 mark…..i really do not know how trump is able to garner record crowds of over 20,000 at his probably half his rallies.. While clinton is struggling to speak to 2000 people...does this indicate some groundswell tsunami on november 8?......another brexit...a powershift...even after his shocking locker room banter...trump is speaking to record rallies in pennsylvania... anything can happen in the life of a nation from now till nov 8...but overthrowing the well entrenched empire will be well nigh impossible... america will be the real loser if hillary wins...

Guns going out of control - the new norm of violence...

As the US election enters its last lap before the die is cast, there has been perhaps an uptick in gun violence over the past few months. As in all things, we have become used to the rising violence over time. Hence the new norm of escalating gun violence is being tolerated. In these future shockean times, our tolerance levels and values are adapting to new norms every year. This paradigm shift norm is equally applicable violence, guns menace, wars, climate change events, economic collapse…...

There are 300 mn guns in US owned by 100 mn people. The redneck gun lobby epitomised by NRA has strong lobbies and support running deep and wide. Inspite of vigorous efforts by Obama, the ultra conservative gun lobby has not yielded inspite of spiralling gun related incidents which are only compounding. Sad all Obama's efforts have come to naught.

Mass killings as defined by 4 or more killings per incident is on the rise in US. Last year at one point during a period of 336 days there were 353 mass killings. During 2015 there were 372 mass gun killings, ie an average of more than one per day!! Current year in 163 days 136 killings. Gun sales have risen from 7 mn in 2002 to 15 mn in 2013. There has been a spurt in sales of guns after each major killing like Sandyhook, etc. In fact there have been a few months with million plus gun sales.

Between 1968 and 2011, there were 1.4 mn firearm deaths in US as compared to 1.2 mn killed in conflict from the US war of independence till Iraq war. This is indeed chilling. US is the most advanced nation. Is this price a country has to pay for being the most advanced.

The cost of containing violence is mounting in all countries. In the most violent countries the cost was over 25% of GDP. The economic cost of all wars in 2015 was a staggering $ 13.6 trillion, ie 13.6% of global GDP in PPP terms. Wars are plaguing vast swathes of the globe....Syria, major portion of Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan........

Europe is beset by terror and rise in domestic violence. India too caught in the web of violence......Difficult choices before society. Increasing fundamentalist terror or police state. Mass gun shootings by sick individuals. Sickness of society is indeed all pervading.

During the 60s Ronald Laing had written a sociological epic "The Politics of the Family". One of the central premises of the book was that mental illnesses have their origin in the violence perpetrated by family members. Hence in a sense all violence starts within the family. This violence is encouraged in schools through competition for ranks and derision of weak students and those withdrawn, introverted....

This trend continues as children grow older through college and into adult working life. Workplace competitive violence continues as employees and colleagues vie for higher positions. Most workplaces are cesspools of politics where only the scheming and ambitious survive. The capitalistic framework is a chief promoter of violence. Hyper competition is the highest level complete warfare and violence. This has desensitised society. Everything is converted in the fine art of war....industrial conglomerates out to kill all in order to reach the top and capture market share snuffing out competition. The MBAs are the generals in this war.

Even war and armaments are a large industry. In US alone 100 MN guns are sold every year, apart from Organised war is indeed a very profitable war. Hence US the great global hegemon has since the Second World War been fighting wars almost continuously starting with Korea. The 60s hippie generation revolution which espoused peace was squashed. Dissent to the massive military has been systematically stymied.

All this violence has been faithfully reproduced and packaged by Hollywood and shown all over the world, and in turn tv has glorified this genre through serials. Rest of the world which has so successfully been americanised has spawned this celluloid culture rampantly. This also has contributed in no mean way to the rise of violence.

Two other forces which have also been responsible for violence are economic insecurity arising from mounting unemployment and the deepening and widening inequalities across the world. Unemployment is a scourge which is present in virtually all societies. With technology spreading its tentacles and displacing humans this phenomena is all the more spreading. Inequalities due to concentration of wealth in the hands of a few has impoverished majority of society in most economies. Poverty has been a prime catalyst for violence.

At a global level too inequalities between nations has been rising. This has been exacerbated by climate change. Hence it has fuelled epic migrations over the past few years from Africa, war torn Syria, Iraq, etc....this has also triggered off spurt in radical Islamic terror. This terror nor has been exported to richer parts of Europe and US through refugees.

Gradually digital surveillance becoming all pervading. Which normally should be a deterrent to violence. Instead now newer forms of violence have emerged to counter surveillance through cyber attacks on information grids which run our cities and lives. Next robot terrorists and remote mass killings will raise their ugly heads. Indeed Frankensteins everywhere. No place is safe and run.

Sanity in an insane world....

Sanity in an insane world

Back to blogging to keep my sanity in an increasingly insane world. Not that there much to add to my previous blogs or to the outline of the New Grammar of Living. I very well know that it is futile to ever think or wish that we can rewind or regress this so called progress of human civilisation in terms of wealth, technological progress, capitalist development, bigger, faster, better in everything, although this very trajectory has brought in its wake widening inequalities, huge swathes of poverty yet to be touched by this so called magic wand of progress, violence, wars, climate change, ecocalypses, et al.

The ever deepening contours of the global developments over the past year or so only buttresses all my earlier writings, blogs and my first diaries about 50 years ago. The absurd theatre and surreal events are only becoming more zanier each day and zombie like we lurch forward.

Couple of months ago I saw some alarmist videos on YouTube which jolted my already numbed mind into this outpouring. They listed out possible scenarios in response to Obama's called for preparedness for disasters. US has set up a crack military outfit which has now spread its tentacles into maybe 200 cities to face any chaos arising from any of the disaster scenarios. The disasters they are anticipating are: massive earthquake and tsunami in California, drought and excess rainfall resulting good shortages, race riots, and the most frightful one on the collapse of the dollar triggered of by another financial meltdown.

The most devastating time bomb ticking away is that of the derivatives market and exposure of major global banks. Recently it surfaced that Deutsche Bank is saddled with $ 75 trillion derivatives which about the same size as that of the global GDP! The total size of global derivatives is a mind boggling ten times global GDP ie around $ 800 trillion. Some estimates place it at $ 1.5 quadrillion!!! This  is extremely toxic and as big a risk as that of the nuclear stockpile and proliferation and rising chances of a terror attack with dirty bombs. We are verily on the precipice.

While all this is taking us close to edge, in one of the most astonishing elections in US, two extremely unpopular candidates - Trump and Clinton are pitted against each other. Ironically this comes at the end of one of the best presidencies US ever had. Also Obama has hit his highest approval ratings of his second term since April 2016.
In view of all the confusion and unpopularity of the current candidates, there is a growing feeling that Obama should carry on for an unprecedented third term which constitutionally not possible. There is a conspiracy theory gaining ground that the US govt could engineer some catastrophe which will generate popular demand for Obama to continue as president! This could be a better option than the present two prospects. Extremely sad the candidate by far the best Bernie Sanders had to bow down to the subterfuge and machinations of the Clinton Mafia.

Violence and terror are marching forward relentlessly with daily occurrences sickening and numbing our senses. No place is safe. Humans are turning psychotic. Kids are now subjected to so much of gore and mindless violence on tv. Islamic fundamentalism wreaking havoc across the globe. Alienated mentally sick loners in advanced countries indulging in mass killings with greater regularity. Hate crimes, police brutality, race attacks....spiralling out of control.

With the proliferation of technology, media, baleful influence of TV and Hollywood, rising incomes in emerging markets, demand for all the goodies, cars, energy intensive lifestyles, crazy urbanisation, concrete jungles...is soaring especially in China and India. Now that the cat is out of the bag it's very difficult to curb the demand for the toys of doom. The developed economies (incl China) are sermonising the emerging markets that they must curb carbon emissions after they have spewed forth overwhelming majority 70% of cumulative global historical emissions. The irony lies in the fact that the industries like auto, air conditioners...are depending upon emerging markets to market their deadly energy guzzling monsters. Yes it's indeed a catch 22 situation.

With major parts of the developed world mired in deep debt doldrums, ravaging climate change related concerns, escalating violence and wars the prognosis for the world appears grim. Humans are too deeply entrenched in conditioning in all  its myriad facets (see my earlier blog on conditioning dated 5th July 14) to ever be able to wrench themselves out of the faustian fatal attraction of the so called progress of civilisation. Truly we are lurching ahead like zombies....

Brexit ...inflexion point....

Historic moment for world. Brexit has won. Is this a canary in the mine? This really could be the precursor of many "break with the past" events to come. The various facets of this move are numbing. It will have ramifications on US elections, existence of EU, financial markets, globalisation, unipolar world....

The EU could start disintegrating with elections looming up in France and Germany. For the past forty years or so unified Europe had become a powerful economic entity which was an ally of US which during this period was losing its position of strength. This was a period when Japan and China rose to the top tiers of the global economic platform. Along with this there was the weakening of the giant USSR and its fragmentation. Russia emerged a much weaker opponent of USA. So there was a move from a bipolar to a unipolar world. Then with the burgeoning growth of China there was more multi polar world.

Presently in USA there is a contentious election with two weak unpopular candidates. Trump like a veritable mad man has been spewing hate and anti immigrant vitriolics. The deep malaise has been the unemployment situation, rising inequalities, rise in immigrants, adverse terms of trade.... With very little institutional support Trump has whipped up considerable support which borders on racism. America is a country of immigrants. Hence within this immigrant society some claim to be more equal than others....

Again the seeds of its unemployment were spawned by its rise to becoming the richest nation on earth. Rising incomes made manufacturing unprofitable. Capitalism dictated that in the search for returns on investment, the cost of labour had to be reduced. Hence manufacturing shifted to China and elsewhere. The middle-class of US shrank. In the process jobs declined along with the rise despair, drugs and violence....

These forty years or so of EU saw the ups and downs of global economic stability. During the past 4/5 years or so large swathes of Europe have started tethering closer to bankruptsy. Debt had ballooned all over the world more so in Europe and USA. Europe witnessed Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy collapsing under unmanageable debt. USA too has run up the highest debt levels anywhere. The largest banks of the western world too are under lot of stress. The financial system too is labouring under crises in currency, derivatives, stock and credit markets....

During this period climate change has intensified. This has lead to widespread famines and social unrest. Terror too has rapidly spread its tentacles especially after the oil crises of the 70s. The first world lead by US tried to control the oil rich gulf countries and also got involved in few wars there. This possibly fuelled and accelerated the growth of fundamentalist terror. The past few years have seen a sharp increase in migrants in Europe and into other parts of the world from Middle East, Africa...This massive migrants crises highlighted the inequalities in the developed world, burden on their already strained financial and fiscal systems, unemployment situation....this has also given rise to racism and blame on open arms policy for refugees...

Indeed very interesting times globally...defining times...momentous times...world is changing and changing very fast....brexit is the tip of the iceberg....this much and no further...the developed world has started saying...the right wing is on the ascendant in the most of the developed world....autarky on the rise... isolationism.... racism... bankrupt economies... Climate change...inequalities... Brexit indeed tip of the iceberg... 

Part of me died today

Slowly the death of Mohammad Ali is sinking into my consciousness. He was an integral part of one's world view and innate existence for about 53 years since he shot into fame by knocking out Liston. He exuded total confidence in his talent and was so poetically articulate. His intelligence was indeed of a high order though he hardly crossed class 10. It took a lot indeed to rise above the apartheid ridden life he had to face
 in his early years. Indeed he was a multi faceted genius.

Yes indeed a dear part of me has died today. Death is a gradual process which does not come the day we are clinically dead. For most as we grow, parts of us keep dying starting with the demise of parents, near ones, icons and idols we worship. We basically are a summation of all the people in our lives who have contributed to the creation of our psyche and physical being. The list of such people may be long. But the same 20/80 principal works here. So there are a few who have made a profound impact in our lives. Each time any of them leave a part of us dies.

Ali had something ineffable and magical about him. He really made a difference to millions of lives. He strode like a colossus on the world stage inspite of his Parkinson. He was no ordinary mortal who would have been ravaged by the debilitating disease. He sheer genius struck all. He transcended the sport boxing which catapulted him to global fame. Indeed for one brief shining moment there was the lyrical grace of a butterfly which uplifted our drab lives.

Ali shot into fame in the 60s which was indeed perhaps the last golden decade for us. 60s gave us so many gigantic icons like Kennedy's, Beatles, Ali, Martin Luther King, Doors, Rolling Stones, Rod Laver, Gary Sobers, Pele....especially for people like us born in the fifties, those two decades will always be our best. With future shock, since the 60s the rate of change is getting progressively telescoped. Hence the mind space impact of the 60s was much more indelible. In most fields the superstars who emerged after the 60s appear puny by comparison.

Since then we live in devalued times. Also with hyper competition there are too many competitors and the marginal value of the more recent entrants is lower. With proliferation of media, technology there is too much of offerings competing for our limited mind space. Hence in this clutter very few can rise head over shoulders over the rest in order to capture our attention. Yes as capitalism matures all heroes are also commoditised without any soul and unique humanness which can occupy our soul mind space.

Most of the heroes today a extremely plastic and sugar coated. We too in view of the mass factory production of heroes, know that these are throwaway heroes who will not lasts the test of time. Newer models pop up every few months which replace the earlier models. Heroes now are not built to last like Ali. 

the trumpsian dilemma before USA

today we are witnessing the classical dilemma of modern man, america and the world. politics all over is indeed a dirty game. in a way it’s power over the masses. it's a process where the vox populi is translated through elections into a government which rules entire population.

today americans are behaving as if they are aghast at the thought of donald trump winning the gop nomination and eventually the general election. they feel as if some monster is going to usurp power. the republicans feel as some rank outsider has come like a bull in a china shop and is upsetting the applecart. this applecart constituted of power brokers, lobbies at pennsylvania avenue and high places, large industry, international trade, big banks, tech titans, ultra rich billionaires led by the Koch Brothers...have practically ruled the roost for the past half century or so...this group has a vice like grip on all elected representatives in the senate and the house of representatives. these vested interests from the background call all the shots. hence democracy is just a charade..a play being directed by these behind the screen directors.

suddenly here comes a person who does not want to play according to the rules of the game. he speaks the language which the common man can relate to...not carefully crafted politicalese which has been scripted out by the powers that be. he has emerged on the main platform as a serious player like a whiff of fresh air like boris becker back in the 80s at wimbledon who swept away all opposition with his unpredictable and fresh style of play. here is a maverick who is original, speaks from the heart, creating his own logic of world view for america which can make it great again.

the rest of the candidates lined up against him look like mannequins, slick well combed hair, plastic, tv stars, well manicured, spouting fixed lines… in front of the formidable trump they look pathetic, puny, malleable, dolls, vapid, devoid of personality… suddenly it seems as if america has been ruled by these puppets for generations...maybe FDR was the last great US president and the rest puppets except obama who too could not stand up to the machinations of the mafia who had tied his hands...sometimes on a clear day you can see forever… this surreal drama now has laid bare the drama which was being played out in the name of presidency….maybe kennedy did not fit the bill….so he had to be removed...later his brother robert...when for one brief shining moment there was camelot….

rubio looks definitely like an ad for brylcreem with with almost gayish overtones and features...cruz look too well manicured...and smooth looking...both of them lack depth and character...like weak sticks which deserved to be blown away by the trump tornado...on the other side there is a jaded hilary pouting her words like a well trained parrot….only sanders has some substance which maybe can withstand the trump gale..but lacks an overpowering personality to counter the trump bully…

donald reminds me of one flew over the cuckoo’s nest where McMurphy was the one saw through the machinations of Nurse Ratched (establishment)...he really wants to liberate the american people from the clutches of the lobbyists... he might be a colourful personality … but that does not detract one mite the missiles he has been hurling at the frightened confused establishment smug after decades of ruling the roost...now they are striking back with vengeance at donald with costly ads pointing out his minor warts and flaws with all seriousness...the more they attack him..the greater his stature seems to grow...nothing sticks to him..a knight in shining teflon armour to whom nothing sticks…

sad this toon war is being played out primetime in front of whole world...degenerating to penile strength comparisons...like clowns,,,even the democrat debates are cliche driven politicalese through heavy filters...hilary is a predictable jaded joke...only sanders is a freak with some sense and intellect… indeed surreal …analysts are saying Trump is 5th material in  terms of mental development and grammar. However highly the others had been educated but finally all that learning last not benefitted the nation during the past 70 years or so. Now the trend is school dropouts have set up the most successful products and businesses in US like Jobs, Bill Gates, et al. trump being a successful business man  would be a sound person i guess to set things right with his strong common sense approach.

america is indeed caught between the scylla and charybdis..the irony of modern times..a defining paradox of 21st century...inequalities rising, real income falling, deficits crossing all sane limits,  violence increasing, terror upping the ante,  racism rampant, drugs, rising trade deficits, unemployment up, healthcare in shambles, corruption spinning out of control, police atrocities……

so who do they turn to for emancipation...to same set of people who are responsible for past rot...or a don quixote who could deliver them from the mess,,,they are in...

Indeed it's difficult for even me to reconcile that how deep the american malaise lies..in a way it is indeed a let down for me after having been a great star struck fan at an highly impressionable age of the kennedys...the magical years when there was camelot for one brief shining moment...one was young and was smitten by apparent glitz and glitter like rock n roll...this was also the period when anti establishment movement reached its peak with rock n roll peaking leading to woodstock.  

But the nixons, reagans, bushes played their narrow oil agenda at the cost of all other far more important agenda which were moved out of sight, soon goldman sachs ceos adorned the treasury functions of the govt. Clearly reason and saner economic agenda were pushed down the priority list….demoniacal financial thughs ruled the roost,  the fiscal deficit burgeoned beyond all sane proportions...the age of air conditioned economies had begun...japan was the first when it entered the loog loog tunnel of recession and quasi negative interest rates in the early 90s... from which it is still to extricate itself from..

Against this long term backdrop in governance of the country was was not truly based upon strategic good for the many...the was a lot of hope on obama...but even his hands were tied,,perhaps its time to break on through to the other side...and start anew from zero base budgeting ….

The time has perhaps come for us to take a decisive lead in global affairs instead of sinking into mediocrity...maybe trump with his fresh, basic and common sense thinking could lift usa from this quagmire.

trump's and america's moment of truth...

At this moment it looks like Donald is going to trumpet his way to glory and the White House. There is a sense of disbelief in most of the things he says. But ironically these seem sound common sense by redneck American standards. He has lashed out against Muslims and Mexicans. He is almost like Hitler reborn. Hitler too was born phoenix like from the ashes of the Great Depression of the 1930s. America too stands totteringly close to the abyss of financial bubbles which are forever morphing into larger bubbles...lending credence to the hypothesis too big to fail... Hence most middle of the road Americans are confused by the gradual decline of America in terms of a world power, economic scenario, wealth, increase in mindless gun violence, police atrocities, climate change, rising inequalities, joblessness, healthcare travails, rise of China, ...the great american dream seems to be in shambles..

Obama had risen like a great black hope who would undo the nightmare which had engulfed the nation for over 25 years. Here was one the best ever presidents to enter the White House….supra intelligent, highly educated, great orator, without no backing of large industry nexus, honest, upright, principled...he had risen like the black knight who would rescue america from all the evil dragons.  But Obama tried his best to set right the behemoth and mammoth beast which was america. However much he tried to put right the morass through his charismatic intelligence…. he was confronted by deeply entrenched vested interests who would let no one upset the status quo. after the financial meltdown, the banks had the bailouts in the way they wanted it. it was indeed business as usual after the loans were repaid and the CEOs were soon rewarded with obscene bonuses.  

Obama also faced blocks in both the senate and house of representatives...both from republicans and his own democrats...indeed navigating through the elected representatives was a nightmare for him or for that matter anyone...the house of cards neatly summarises american politics...the conniving muck...only obama was too classy and principled to side with muck….

obama failed to pass the anti gun laws in spite of all his best efforts….in spite of all the mounting violence… shootings …there were @ 1 point of time 355 shootings of min 4 deaths during a period of 335 days... he had to face insane opposition while trying to push obamacare...his climate fossil fuel proposals have been stalled...ironically by the supreme court...the litany goes on and on…

with all the prevailing confusion in the country...the greater part of the country is fed up of the establishment which they feel has failed them in rescuing the country from the perils which have beset it from all sides….suddenly in the midst of all this there comes round the presidential election...and what are they confronted with? … a melee of mediocre presidential aspirants … none of which looks like lifting the country out of the depression… all the candidates look vapid and sound hollow...like in a puppet show...hilary is increasing looking like an also ran..a loser..a manipulator...sanders bit better..but doesn't look like a winner on his own steam...all the other republicans appear puny and puerile incapable of holding their own…

at this juncture trump appears like a heavyweight champion of yore...another era...another time...cassius clay...aka...muhammad ali...larger than life….pulling sucker punches at the kids rubio and cruz...he has uttered what no one had dared to earlier...the m word...keeping out muslims and mexicans out of US...suddenly people realised here was a man who did not mince his words..was not afraid to speak out what most had secretly harboured in their hearts...since 9/11 there had been growing divide globally against terrorists who in the name of jihad had been taking innocent lives…

here was a  person like superman or batman who dared to speak the unutterables and promised to take action on terror...the other thing which americans had been suffering from was the invasion of the mexicans across a porous border in search of a better life in the land of milk and honey...along with the mexicans poured in drugs from the cartels in mexico, colombia, magic realism and beyond...the story of drugs and mind expansion is another one for another day...suffice it to say...many americans needed these drugs to face life…

at long last...the great white hope...shining knight in white armour who will deliver americans from all vicissitudes… full of bravado..who has rallied all with his anti-m warcry.. the broad middle class is clinging on to him as a saviour from all ails affecting the world’s most advanced and powerful nation..

even though trump himself ….a flamboyant real estate multi billionaire...has so many failings… taxes...using illegal immigrant labour...and so on...still the populace at large are in no mood to listen to these innuendos against him thrown by the flailing opponents at the much publicised eye ball catching debates… like a juggernaut he is rolling from state to state winning caucuses and primaries...looks unstoppable…he is gradually building an aura around him...people feel he can deliver them from all the ills plaguing american society..a blind faith in him since he alone has the courage to name the unnameable...

in a sense he could be better than reagan or bush jr...since he has been a successful businessman…  the moment of truth will be in november… if he wins...will he be able to fix the economy...the ballooning debt..rising inequalities..a demagogue in the white house after … the great obama...perhaps a sign of the despair of the times...the polarisation of society...nemesis…

redeeming part of him...he has ridiculed bush for the war he started in search of elusive weapons of mass destruction...a chimera in the desert...but being the brash person he is he will no doubt get drawn to other wars...even obama could not keep america out of wars...perhaps the world has become a theatre for armaments bashing so the the military industrial complexes can keep on chugging….few of the wars bush sr and jr fought were for oil...perhaps this triggered of a strong dislike for americans by the arabs.

wonder if any american president really has a say in deciding upon these wars. the military industrial complex is just too powerful. the presidents are figureheads...who        are under the thumbs of the powerful lobbies of armaments, finance, etc. these lobbyists operate their machiavellian moves through the members of the two houses of government. hence we see the peculiar combinations of senators and members of the HOR who vote for different bills. the house of cards really portrays this mess so wonderfully.

so at the end does it really matter who is at the helm. the major issues drive themselves. the vested interests ensure their agendas are smoothly passed. so whoever wins will have to toe the lines of the power brokers...but if trump triumphs...he will certainly add lot of colour and interest in these bleak times..

the meaningless ban on marijuana

Strange how society has on one hand categorised as dangerous and criminal innocent people who smoke or imbibe a harmless weed like cannabis, while on the other hand much higher proportion of the populace are addicted to alcohol socially or physiologically which is certainly a much more dangerous intoxicant harmful to the user, family and society just because the liquor industry is very rich with strong lobbies. 

 

The Lancet of UK had brought out a study in 2010, where the findings of a "MCDA (multi criteria decision analysis) model showed that heroin, crack cocaine, and methamphetamine were the most harmful drugs to individuals (part scores 34, 37, and 32, respectively), whereas alcohol, heroin, and crack cocaine were the most harmful to others (46, 21, and 17, respectively). Overall, alcohol was the most harmful drug (overall harm score 72), with heroin (55) and crack cocaine (54) in second and third places.

 

Dr Nutt who was part of a joint research team of three which published the above, in his blog in 2011 wrote "Taken together we estimate that alcohol is at least twice as harmful to users than cannabis and 5 times more harmful to society. The obvious conclusion is that the current legislation criminalising cannabis users is illogical as well as inhumane and may be causing much more harm than it does good". This shows that on the harmful index, marijuana at around 26 was far below alcohol's 72. 

 

The different types intoxicants have been broadly categorised into opiates, cannabis, barbiturates, alcohol, amphetamine. Very broadly speaking, if we were to rank them on a spectrum very bad for self, family and society - alcohol emerges as the worst, followed by heroin of the opiate family, and some other derivatives of the same family, followed by barbiturates, amphetamine. Cannabis is at the bottom as the least harmful intoxicant. Based upon addictive potential vs effective to lethal dose ratio, marijuana is far less harmful than both alcohol and tobacco.

 

 

In fact, one can go a step further and argue that certain substances like peyote, hashish, dhatura have been used since time immemorial for spiritual purposes…. cosmic consciousness, self realisation, satori, nirvana…In fact in the east, especially India, millions of mystics, babas, gurus smoke a lot of ganja, opium, etc in their quest for spiritual realisation and also as a way of life. apart from them, millions of lower class and middle class people both in rural areas and cities have their daily dose of ganja, etc. None of them suffer from any abnormal behaviour in excess of what is found in other classes. in certain parts of eastern India, especially in Orissa, ganja, bhang and opium are freely taken in certain districts, towns. Even the old are administered opium regularly to help them cope with old age....

 

Fair amount of research has been carried out in this space. Some of the greatest intellectuals, artists, rock n roll and doctors who have espoused the mind expansion way of life to name a few which readily come to mind are: Dr Aldous Huxley, Dr Timothy Leary, Dr Allan Watts, Dr Allen Ginsberg, Tom Wolfe, John Lennon, Jerry Garcia, Bob Dylan, Bob Marley…. and the list goes on. The entire anti-establishment culture of the 60s was fueled by the sweet smoke of marijuana. The hippy and beat generation were the first to fight against the illegal ban of cannabis. 

 

History is replete with cycles of banning and re-allowing various psychoactive substances. Banning has never been an effective method. Humankind like in the garden of eden always craves for the forbidden fruit. Prohibition has never succeeded in any society. Tobacco, opium, alcohol, cannabis...have been prohibited at various points of history and subsequently some of them have been legally made available. Strangely cannabis which is the least harmful is still illegal in most parts of the world. 

 

With climate change on the rampage, marijuana should be the green intoxicant option over the industrial alcohol. 

 

But starting with US cannabis is staging a comeback. Presently it is legal in some form or the other in more than half the states in US. It is expected to be legalised across US within a decade. this will surely set in motion a global wave wherein most places in the world will have marijuana freely. 

 

Bob Marley who was a Rastafarian devoted his life to the spread of one love and free marijuana smoking. Am 64. Waiting for the day within my lifetime when the ban on cannabis will be lifted. More importantly the conditioning of society must change which views cannabis in a poor light whereas alcohol is socially acceptable inspite of all its negatives. 

 

The best part is that cannabis is the middle of the road psychoactive substance choice in terms of physical and psychological addiction, makes people peace loving, increases creativity, cost, least harmful to health, high lethal dose level...indeed it is the dream substance which can emancipate humankind from the morass it finds itself in in terms of violence, terror, financial collapse, economic over leverage, hyper consumerism and competition, climate collapse, high energy intensive lifestyles

Last and Final Call - COP21

1st Dec 15

Finally we are there. Here is now. Future is now. After an interminable wait the last and final call for postponing the hurtle towards the abyss of climate collapse has begun in Paris..the most beautiful and intellectual of cities..which has been the vanguard of the free world with the cry of liberty, equality, 

fraternity...in the aftermath of the dastardly terror strikes a couple of weeks ago...indeed a fitting 

metro to host this most important of conferences which may determine the future course of the planet..Paris is indeed the apt place for such discussions.

Leaders have all the strategies which can limit carbon emissions. This time the realization is perhaps at the highest in terms of sense of urgency, time running out, need for effective practical steps which will effectively reduce carbon emissions. The major focus is on reducing carbon emissions.     

12th Dec 15

COP21 talks over. Last minute midnight oil negotiations have come to an end. Couple of hours ago 

document has been released. News channels say 1.5C cap on temp increase has been agreed. What 

does it mean? Since advent of industrial society they claim average temp have risen by only 1C. But 

in my experience during the past 23 years temp in Bengaluru has risen by about 2C. Rest of India the picture is the same. Like in the x files there is a giant conspiracy by the governments to hide the truth.  

Crux of the matter is that the developing ecos would definitely like to provide electricity to their poor, but the cost of clean energy is high. The incremental cost is being sought from the so called rich 

nations. But ironically the rich nations are up their necks in debt which has crossed perilous levels. 

Indeed a catch 22 situation. 

19th Dec 15

A week over since COP21. Lot of awareness created all over the world. But as i have said earlier 

most of are no nearer the truth. Its indeed the age of confusion and obfuscation. Everyone is speaking in different tongues. Climate change which has a complex interdependent causal effect relationship 

is being now mostly attributed to carbon emissions. Its true that carbon emissions have a direct 

correlation to global temperature rise.   

1st Jan 16

Three weeks since COP21. Not much has emerged in terms of clear way forward, except the final 

draft which was an art in deal making where the diverse opinions of 160 countries were distillated 

into a HCFof options. More worrying is the approval by respective governments. Finally the 100 bn $ flow from rich to poor conveniently at the distance of 2020... So much can happen between now and then.

But in concrete terms nothing is changing at ground level. Everything is moving at cross purposes...

higher production of cars and cities trying desperately to reduce use of cars. Migration to cities 

unabated. Climate change has increased exponentially during and after COP21 ironically. Still 

skeptics all over are questioning climate evangelists. More in my next blog.