This is the rise of the robots. Fanuc is the world’s largest
company manufacturing robots in japan. Its plant is nestled under the majestic
mount fuji. In the past couple of years the company has become the cynosure of
the global corporate fraternity. Its valuation has reached $ 53 bn. It’s sitting
upon a cash pile of over $ 7 bn, while its operating profit is $ 2.3 bn based
upon sales of $ 5.7 bn. Some of its tony clients are apple and tesla motors.
The company till recently was relatively unknown worldwide. Its
valuation has climbed sharply by 50% over the past year. It has very few human employees.
It’s manned?! mostly by robots who manufacture at a staggering rate fellow
robots with clinical efficiency and 0 defect. Yes we are truly at the inflexion
point of human history as we are gradually driven towards kurzweil’s age of
singularity.
Japan has the highest robot usage by human households,
ranging from pets, Barbie dolls as sex toys, house working. The movie Her
captures the virtual relationship between and a man and a computer. Now we see
the advent of drones, driverless cars. We are slowly but surely morphing into
an age where computers will be doing most of our work.
Online ordering of all retail consumer requirements is
increasing exponentially. The real estate industry has received a shot in the
arm with mega warehouses being booked by online providers like amazon, flipkart
in india. Amazon is also working upon drones which will deliver items at customer’s
places. The possibilities are limitless.
The next step of melding between humans and chips has started.
Chips which are given commands by computers. Kurzweil predicts that by 2029 or
so computers will exceed human beings in intelligence and they will be able to
do the entire intelligent decision making.
Gradual most factories will be buying robots to replace
human labour / brains. Robots will only have a capital cost and EMIs, while
humans will need salaries and other allowances plus retirement benefits. Hence the
profit drivers will dictate that higher proportion of robots man factories. Over
the next 15 years or so, there will be tectonic shift in the employment structure
pattern. This will impact across all sectors: industry, services and
agriculture.
Unless new earning opportunities are spawned off, there will be
the creation of an impoverished class who will be much worse off than the
current lowest classes in society. Maybe with the help of nano biotechnology and
the cloud, these classes of unfortunate impoverished workers without meaningful
work will be converted into zombies which will have no mind of their own and
will be easy to manipulate by the master classes for doing only menial and
physical labour. A new class of denizens will be formed as a consequence of the
increasing dominance of robots.
The present highest robot using countries are south korea,
japan, germany, italy, sweden, denmark, us, spain, finland, Taiwan. Automotive and
electrical / electronic have the largest number of robots industry wise. The total
stock of robots globally in 2013 ranged between 1.3 to 1.6 mn. The average life
of a robot ranging between 12 to 15 years. This trend will increase
exponentially. As the power of computers increases to match human beings be
2029, more and more high intellect and senior decision making jobs will be usurped
by robots. Already roboplanners and roboadvisers are offering financial
planning and wealth management services to clients of Charles Schwab.
As it is computers are doing a huge share of
very complex computations in most spheres be it aerospace, meteorology, aviation,
industrial production, etc. now with sophisticated DSSs (decision support
systems), a stage can be reached where human intervention in complex operations
can be totally bypassed. This is indeed a frightening inevitable trend which
will ring the death knell of higher level human jobs which required human
intervention and decision making. The main reason why this would be possible is
the continuous miniaturization of chips, increase in speeds of data transfer
and also the steep declines in chip costs. This will enable using far superior
chips every year.
By 2045 as
kurzweil says, the computers will surpass the intelligence of all humans on the
planet. Another very significant inflexion point in human history. By then
humans we have been unofficially reduced to second class citizens. All the
power will have shifted to the computers. It will not be outside the realm of possibility
that one day the computers may decide that they take over and rule us. They are
cheaper to build and maintain, whereas humans are very expensive. By then also
with all major done by computers, humans, at least the upper class ones will be
leading a life of leisure with very little work. And gradually also becoming redundant.
Most of the resources of mother earth will be for the consumption of the effete
human race.
The computers might just decide that enough is enough and they can
manage the world much better at much lesser cost. Hence why support these white
elephants who do not contribute any value. The zombies might be more useful to
them as they would obediently do all the hard work for very little. Instead the
machine might create a few hybrid humarobs with implanted chips and connected
to the all knowing cloud which will a superior race and closer to the computers
and more amenable. Humans are dead, long live the computers and humarobs.
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