New Grammar of Living Model

The New Grammar of Living Model (NGL) is an attempt to forecast the future of the world economy, countries and economic blocs based upon an integrated, interdependent and holistic structured model premised upon the triad of the important planks, namely, social, economic and climate / environment. The NGL incorporates a wide spectrum of causal critical factors which are intertwined with cross impacts.

The NLG will be capturing cross sectional time series data in its most complex version. The model will be capable of combining the noise and signals of the factors across several disciples into weighted rank scores for any point of time, and also projections over a period of time. Based upon these, the model will be to forecast the position obtaining at future points of time, say, 2025, 2050. The prediction will be both in term of the country as a whole encapsulating all the critical factors, and as well as for each of he factors.

Each of the factors will be assigned appropriate weights based upon its criticality, whether its a necessary and sufficient condition. Weights will be flexible so as to vary across countries based upon their relative criticality with respect to local relevant situations obtaining. Once there is sufficient data, factor analysis will help in arriving at appropriate weights.

The scores of various countries can be normalized by dividing by cumulative weights in order reduce all countries, large or small, rich or poor, to a standardized  score which irons out all biases due to size. 

Conditioning......

Conditioning of human beings is one of the main contributing factors for most of the problems facing humanity today. Everything we think, do, say is based upon centuries of conditioning right from Neanderthal man. Broadly conditioning may be divided into two categories: basic or existential and social. The first one is linked to survival instincts like fear of fire, large water bodies, death, falling, physical harm, etc. The second type of conditioning, social conditioning which has evolved later has originated from from social mores evolved from centuries of living in groups of humans.

One part of this social conditioning has been thrust upon us from early religion and scriptures, like right and wrong, holy / unholy, approved activities / sin. The priestly classes who took it upon them to lay down the religious laws in order to control the lives of the masses with the threat that those who do not live according to their precepts will be damned to hell after death. Hence most of us in the hope of eternal life or going to heaven after our mortal lives here on earth subscribed to religion like an insurance or opiate which will ensure eternal life after death. Hence institutionalised religion became a powerful industry or mafia which controlled human thought and action. Anything which went against their mores was considered sinful or heretic and punished. Some of these punishments in the Middle Ages were barbaric. Even today some of the religions have strict mores with fundamentalism and fanaticism.

The other part of social conditioning emanates from centuries of social living and formation of societies. It is basically this variant of social conditioning which is really most inimical to the healthy and sound evolution of society and economies. The most dangerous conditioning is almost hard coded into the mind sets of people and everyone aspires to lead their lives according to these pernicious influences. These social and class oriented conditioning forms the bulwark of free markets. It's a mad race by all trying the reach the pinnacle as per the unfair and ultimately self defeating norms of these class based social conditioning.

According to this school of conditioning which is insidiously passed on to us in our childhood the desired states which are so called positive, good and desirable are: rich, big, faster, powerful, white, handsome, energy intensive, wealth, status, expensive, hi tech, high society, normal, acceptable mores, conventional, right, etc. so basically a bipolar spectrum is created for all attributes where only being on one side is supposed to be good for self and society.

This very attitude fuels a strong movement where all are veering to the so called right end of the spectrum. This concentration of human behaviour at the extreme end leads to sub optimal imbalances for society and eco systems which ultimately impact upon climate change.


                                                                     


TO BE COMPLETED SOON

Our Pleasantville time warp lives

Pleasantville is a metaphor for a place where people preferred to live in a time warp. When Bud and Mary Sue are transported to the 50s, at first they find it difficult to accept the 50s. Then they started changing the mind sets of the people. Then the Mayor brought out a manifesto for the people which banned all change from their comfortable existing norms like no colour only black and white, etc. finally all the folks rebelled and changed Pleasantville forever. But Bud returns to the present (90s) in through the TV.

The movie was rated very high. Roger Egbert rated it 100. It was a satire on the staid lifestyles of the pre 1950s and also on communist regimes. Now if we rewind to so called most exciting phase of human civilisation ie today. We are indeed in the midst of a hi tech society where technology has transformed the lives of most urban population, high energy intensive metropolises, cars, mobiles.

But all this highly wired society guzzling energy is facing terrible climate change signals which like frogs in water vessel being heated gradually meet their ends because they are lulled into staying in the water till it's too late to escape. There is an interesting article from New York Times by Paulson a former US Treasury Secretary on inaction on climate front http://nyti.ms/1kYWXz2.

We are all like in Pleasantville unwilling to change. In the movie they were unwilling to move ahead, but now our society is faced with the reverse truth. We need to roll back our high tech and energy lifestyles to a more simpler and earth friendly existence. 

Impermanence of life....

Life sometimes is most cruel. It's impermanence is truly scary but the ultimate truth. On one hand the advances in medical sciences have prolonged life for a select elite few. On the other hand the havenots which outnumber the haves by over thousand fold, do not have access even to basic medicines and hygienic living conditions. These havenots are scattered in all continents, with the highest concentration being in Africa, Asia. This is not to say the havenots are not present in affluent economies in appreciable numbers.

Recently saw a few movies, like Blood Diamond, The Constant Gardener, etc. where the abject poverty of the downtrodden is so very depressing. In India too the picture is not much  better.

The fate of stray animals in India is most pitiful, recently in my compound two of the resident stray dogs died sad brutal deaths, killed by their own siblings. The root cause is overpopulation. This sibling killing is a Malthusian phenomena. Increase in dogs in the apartment complex which may be capable of supporting a certain number of canines who can live optimally off the waste food of 550 flats. Wish we could have sterilised the dogs and curb the indiscriminate multiplication of their tribe.

Earth is bearing twice as many humans today since Mother Earth's resources are finite at any point of time. We are over plundering the dwindling resources. Added to it is the fury of Climate Change which is impacting nature's cycles, crop patterns and output.

Coming back to the Malthusian theory, there are 50 MN people who have become refugees due to war. There is a definite need to curb population growth and eventually stabilise population around five billion. Along with this curb and reduce the retail weapons of mass destruction like cars, airconditioners, etc. The entire market driven consumption oriented get rich bigger faster best orientation must be reversed.

Inspite of the impermanence of life, humans want to gather wealth endlessly and bequeath to their offsprings. Everyone wants to go up the so called social ladder. The ladder is strewn with milestones like cars, houses, bigger cars and houses, endless consumer durables and electronics, status, travel, alcohol, grandeur...... But finally death is the ultimate reality. So basically humans are killing the planet for most transitory and ephemeral pleasures and pride.

Hence urgent Need for yoga, less energy intensive life styles. Life in any case is transient, but let there be a peaceful coexistence on this planet while we are here. Let's not trample on nature to satiate our energy intensive desires. Need to evolve a New Grammar of Living. A bare outline of New Grammar of Living has been presented in this blog. We need to work together to live the New Grammar of Living. 

The LIE bubble getting bigger....

The past decade has seen witnessed a massive financial meltdown in 2008, out of which most of the world is yet to emerge unscathed. The crony capitalism fraud between the Wall Street bankers and investment bankers, the SEC, credit raters, FED, big industry has hurtled US into a long tunnel of recession alike the one Japan entered in early 90s after over thirty years of unprecedented growth and prosperity during which time it become the second richest nation on earth. We see a lot of parallels between both the super rich nations soft landing entering into long term recession.

The other mega industry in US which is also throttling the growth of US is the healthcare industry which at $ 2.7 k bn constitutes about 20% of the GDP. there are scams galore in this segment. There is an unholy alliance between the hospitals, doctors, surgeons, pharma industry, FDA, drug testing, etc. about $ 272 bn is being syphoned off by unscrupulous doctors who write fake prescriptions for addictive drugs which find their way to the black market and sold at multiple prices. Apart from this there is the issue of delays in providing medical assistance.

The CEOs of the above companies still get mega salaries with stratospheric bonuses. This more sickening in the case of the banks which are yet to gain back the pre 2008 health.

There seems to be an unreal sense in the world economy. Everyone is trying bravely to give the impression that all is fine and soon all would be normal, whereas actually the rot does not seem to be improving. It is as if everyone is ensconced in a giant bubble of deceit and lies which instead of being    corrected is permitted to bloat further. Dow Jones at historic highs. Interest rates almost zero. Mega banks being penalised again. But the show goes on with the lie bubble getting bigger and bigger.

Bees disappearing..yet another species bites the dust..

Yet another species is gradually moving towards extinction. Today bees in US have decreased dramatically over past few years. They are crucial in the chain of life in nature as they pollinate and sustain birth and growth of several fruit and nuts. Few days ago there was a report of some species of fish dying and being washed ashore on the beaches of California. They live on some algae which is disappearing due to the increasing acid content in the oceans. This acidity is disturbing the delicate ecological balance in the oceans. Most of these rather disturbing news of endangered spices has been intensifying over the past decade.

Yet humans continue their plundering ways with more energy intensive lifestyles and more cars, SUVs, air conditioning, higher carbon emissions. It's life and business as usual for mankind with scant respect for the fauna and flora. The anthropocene era is certainly the doom and hubris of the human race. Climate change is inexorably becoming more pronounced. Yet humans like frogs in water which is heating are lulled into a sense of complacency. 

Marriage a fading institution...

The latest US Research shows that only one in three millennial mothers below thirty are married. Earlier Research showed that over 50% of mothers in US and UK are single parents. The trends are very clear. Most people in western societies prefer to stay alone. Gradually these trends are also surfacing in advanced emerging large cities like Mumbai. Recently rising proportion of young marriages are breaking down in the first year only,

Same trends are holding in Central Europe, Scandinavia, etc. married couples are reluctant to clearly and honestly enunciate their expectations from each other prior to tying the knot. Hence there is fair amount of disappointment in the early years of wedlock. Most young people are becoming fiercely individualist. They are not willing to adjust a wee bit to to each other's differences in living habits.

In many advanced countries, young people have started keeping pets. And in some more advanced singly youngster keep large electronic toys and sex toys. Even robots of the opposite sex are popular.

In US, there are now 57 MN pet dogs and 46 mn pet cats. Virtually 50% of households have dogs and  40% cats. The pet industry is a multi bn industry. This indicates alienation is at all time high.

People are increasing resorting to digital lives. Siri of iPhone is a companion. The all omnipresent TV     is watching everyone  like in 1984. Surveillance cameras are recording every minute of our lives a la Truman a Show style. The ubiquitous smart phone is a constant companion.

Sexual preferences are changing. It's no longer the tradition choices at work. Myriad
combinations of kinky and experimental are in vogue.

Even fertility is on a sharp decline. All kinds of surrogate and other fertility methods are being practised. Gradually human race is morphing into Kurzweils'Age of Singularity.

The Future is Now