Saturday, 4 June 2016

Part of me died today

Slowly the death of Mohammad Ali is sinking into my consciousness. He was an integral part of one's world view and innate existence for about 53 years since he shot into fame by knocking out Liston. He exuded total confidence in his talent and was so poetically articulate. His intelligence was indeed of a high order though he hardly crossed class 10. It took a lot indeed to rise above the apartheid ridden life he had to face
 in his early years. Indeed he was a multi faceted genius.

Yes indeed a dear part of me has died today. Death is a gradual process which does not come the day we are clinically dead. For most as we grow, parts of us keep dying starting with the demise of parents, near ones, icons and idols we worship. We basically are a summation of all the people in our lives who have contributed to the creation of our psyche and physical being. The list of such people may be long. But the same 20/80 principal works here. So there are a few who have made a profound impact in our lives. Each time any of them leave a part of us dies.

Ali had something ineffable and magical about him. He really made a difference to millions of lives. He strode like a colossus on the world stage inspite of his Parkinson. He was no ordinary mortal who would have been ravaged by the debilitating disease. He sheer genius struck all. He transcended the sport boxing which catapulted him to global fame. Indeed for one brief shining moment there was the lyrical grace of a butterfly which uplifted our drab lives.

Ali shot into fame in the 60s which was indeed perhaps the last golden decade for us. 60s gave us so many gigantic icons like Kennedy's, Beatles, Ali, Martin Luther King, Doors, Rolling Stones, Rod Laver, Gary Sobers, Pele....especially for people like us born in the fifties, those two decades will always be our best. With future shock, since the 60s the rate of change is getting progressively telescoped. Hence the mind space impact of the 60s was much more indelible. In most fields the superstars who emerged after the 60s appear puny by comparison.

Since then we live in devalued times. Also with hyper competition there are too many competitors and the marginal value of the more recent entrants is lower. With proliferation of media, technology there is too much of offerings competing for our limited mind space. Hence in this clutter very few can rise head over shoulders over the rest in order to capture our attention. Yes as capitalism matures all heroes are also commoditised without any soul and unique humanness which can occupy our soul mind space.

Most of the heroes today a extremely plastic and sugar coated. We too in view of the mass factory production of heroes, know that these are throwaway heroes who will not lasts the test of time. Newer models pop up every few months which replace the earlier models. Heroes now are not built to last like Ali. 

Wednesday, 23 March 2016

the trumpsian dilemma before USA

today we are witnessing the classical dilemma of modern man, america and the world. politics all over is indeed a dirty game. in a way it’s power over the masses. it's a process where the vox populi is translated through elections into a government which rules entire population.


today americans are behaving as if they are aghast at the thought of donald trump winning the gop nomination and eventually the general election. they feel as if some monster is going to usurp power. the republicans feel as some rank outsider has come like a bull in a china shop and is upsetting the applecart. this applecart constituted of power brokers, lobbies at pennsylvania avenue and high places, large industry, international trade, big banks, tech titans, ultra rich billionaires led by the Koch Brothers...have practically ruled the roost for the past half century or so...this group has a vice like grip on all elected representatives in the senate and the house of representatives. these vested interests from the background call all the shots. hence democracy is just a charade..a play being directed by these behind the screen directors.


suddenly here comes a person who does not want to play according to the rules of the game. he speaks the language which the common man can relate to...not carefully crafted politicalese which has been scripted out by the powers that be. he has emerged on the main platform as a serious player like a whiff of fresh air like boris becker back in the 80s at wimbledon who swept away all opposition with his unpredictable and fresh style of play. here is a maverick who is original, speaks from the heart, creating his own logic of world view for america which can make it great again.


the rest of the candidates lined up against him look like mannequins, slick well combed hair, plastic, tv stars, well manicured, spouting fixed lines… in front of the formidable trump they look pathetic, puny, malleable, dolls, vapid, devoid of personality… suddenly it seems as if america has been ruled by these puppets for generations...maybe FDR was the last great US president and the rest puppets except obama who too could not stand up to the machinations of the mafia who had tied his hands...sometimes on a clear day you can see forever… this surreal drama now has laid bare the drama which was being played out in the name of presidency….maybe kennedy did not fit the bill….so he had to be removed...later his brother robert...when for one brief shining moment there was camelot….


rubio looks definitely like an ad for brylcreem with with almost gayish overtones and features...cruz look too well manicured...and smooth looking...both of them lack depth and character...like weak sticks which deserved to be blown away by the trump tornado...on the other side there is a jaded hilary pouting her words like a well trained parrot….only sanders has some substance which maybe can withstand the trump gale..but lacks an overpowering personality to counter the trump bully…


donald reminds me of one flew over the cuckoo’s nest where McMurphy was the one saw through the machinations of Nurse Ratched (establishment)...he really wants to liberate the american people from the clutches of the lobbyists... he might be a colourful personality … but that does not detract one mite the missiles he has been hurling at the frightened confused establishment smug after decades of ruling the roost...now they are striking back with vengeance at donald with costly ads pointing out his minor warts and flaws with all seriousness...the more they attack him..the greater his stature seems to grow...nothing sticks to him..a knight in shining teflon armour to whom nothing sticks…


sad this toon war is being played out primetime in front of whole world...degenerating to penile strength comparisons...like clowns,,,even the democrat debates are cliche driven politicalese through heavy filters...hilary is a predictable jaded joke...only sanders is a freak with some sense and intellect… indeed surreal …analysts are saying Trump is 5th material in  terms of mental development and grammar. However highly the others had been educated but finally all that learning last not benefitted the nation during the past 70 years or so. Now the trend is school dropouts have set up the most successful products and businesses in US like Jobs, Bill Gates, et al. trump being a successful business man  would be a sound person i guess to set things right with his strong common sense approach.


america is indeed caught between the scylla and charybdis..the irony of modern times..a defining paradox of 21st century...inequalities rising, real income falling, deficits crossing all sane limits,  violence increasing, terror upping the ante,  racism rampant, drugs, rising trade deficits, unemployment up, healthcare in shambles, corruption spinning out of control, police atrocities……


so who do they turn to for emancipation...to same set of people who are responsible for past rot...or a don quixote who could deliver them from the mess,,,they are in...


Indeed it's difficult for even me to reconcile that how deep the american malaise lies..in a way it is indeed a let down for me after having been a great star struck fan at an highly impressionable age of the kennedys...the magical years when there was camelot for one brief shining moment...one was young and was smitten by apparent glitz and glitter like rock n roll...this was also the period when anti establishment movement reached its peak with rock n roll peaking leading to woodstock.  


But the nixons, reagans, bushes played their narrow oil agenda at the cost of all other far more important agenda which were moved out of sight, soon goldman sachs ceos adorned the treasury functions of the govt. Clearly reason and saner economic agenda were pushed down the priority list….demoniacal financial thughs ruled the roost,  the fiscal deficit burgeoned beyond all sane proportions...the age of air conditioned economies had begun...japan was the first when it entered the loog loog tunnel of recession and quasi negative interest rates in the early 90s... from which it is still to extricate itself from..


Against this long term backdrop in governance of the country was was not truly based upon strategic good for the many...the was a lot of hope on obama...but even his hands were tied,,perhaps its time to break on through to the other side...and start anew from zero base budgeting ….

The time has perhaps come for us to take a decisive lead in global affairs instead of sinking into mediocrity...maybe trump with his fresh, basic and common sense thinking could lift usa from this quagmire.

Sunday, 28 February 2016

trump's and america's moment of truth...

At this moment it looks like Donald is going to trumpet his way to glory and the White House. There is a sense of disbelief in most of the things he says. But ironically these seem sound common sense by redneck American standards. He has lashed out against Muslims and Mexicans. He is almost like Hitler reborn. Hitler too was born phoenix like from the ashes of the Great Depression of the 1930s. America too stands totteringly close to the abyss of financial bubbles which are forever morphing into larger bubbles...lending credence to the hypothesis too big to fail... Hence most middle of the road Americans are confused by the gradual decline of America in terms of a world power, economic scenario, wealth, increase in mindless gun violence, police atrocities, climate change, rising inequalities, joblessness, healthcare travails, rise of China, ...the great american dream seems to be in shambles..
Obama had risen like a great black hope who would undo the nightmare which had engulfed the nation for over 25 years. Here was one the best ever presidents to enter the White House….supra intelligent, highly educated, great orator, without no backing of large industry nexus, honest, upright, principled...he had risen like the black knight who would rescue america from all the evil dragons.  But Obama tried his best to set right the behemoth and mammoth beast which was america. However much he tried to put right the morass through his charismatic intelligence…. he was confronted by deeply entrenched vested interests who would let no one upset the status quo. after the financial meltdown, the banks had the bailouts in the way they wanted it. it was indeed business as usual after the loans were repaid and the CEOs were soon rewarded with obscene bonuses.  
Obama also faced blocks in both the senate and house of representatives...both from republicans and his own democrats...indeed navigating through the elected representatives was a nightmare for him or for that matter anyone...the house of cards neatly summarises american politics...the conniving muck...only obama was too classy and principled to side with muck….
obama failed to pass the anti gun laws in spite of all his best efforts….in spite of all the mounting violence… shootings …there were @ 1 point of time 355 shootings of min 4 deaths during a period of 335 days... he had to face insane opposition while trying to push obamacare...his climate fossil fuel proposals have been stalled...ironically by the supreme court...the litany goes on and on…
with all the prevailing confusion in the country...the greater part of the country is fed up of the establishment which they feel has failed them in rescuing the country from the perils which have beset it from all sides….suddenly in the midst of all this there comes round the presidential election...and what are they confronted with? … a melee of mediocre presidential aspirants … none of which looks like lifting the country out of the depression… all the candidates look vapid and sound hollow...like in a puppet show...hilary is increasing looking like an also ran..a loser..a manipulator...sanders bit better..but doesn't look like a winner on his own steam...all the other republicans appear puny and puerile incapable of holding their own…
at this juncture trump appears like a heavyweight champion of yore...another era...another time...cassius clay...aka...muhammad ali...larger than life….pulling sucker punches at the kids rubio and cruz...he has uttered what no one had dared to earlier...the m word...keeping out muslims and mexicans out of US...suddenly people realised here was a man who did not mince his words..was not afraid to speak out what most had secretly harboured in their hearts...since 9/11 there had been growing divide globally against terrorists who in the name of jihad had been taking innocent lives…
here was a  person like superman or batman who dared to speak the unutterables and promised to take action on terror...the other thing which americans had been suffering from was the invasion of the mexicans across a porous border in search of a better life in the land of milk and honey...along with the mexicans poured in drugs from the cartels in mexico, colombia, magic realism and beyond...the story of drugs and mind expansion is another one for another day...suffice it to say...many americans needed these drugs to face life…
at long last...the great white hope...shining knight in white armour who will deliver americans from all vicissitudes… full of bravado..who has rallied all with his anti-m warcry.. the broad middle class is clinging on to him as a saviour from all ails affecting the world’s most advanced and powerful nation..
even though trump himself ….a flamboyant real estate multi billionaire...has so many failings… taxes...using illegal immigrant labour...and so on...still the populace at large are in no mood to listen to these innuendos against him thrown by the flailing opponents at the much publicised eye ball catching debates… like a juggernaut he is rolling from state to state winning caucuses and primaries...looks unstoppable…he is gradually building an aura around him...people feel he can deliver them from all the ills plaguing american society..a blind faith in him since he alone has the courage to name the unnameable...
in a sense he could be better than reagan or bush jr...since he has been a successful businessman…  the moment of truth will be in november… if he wins...will he be able to fix the economy...the ballooning debt..rising inequalities..a demagogue in the white house after … the great obama...perhaps a sign of the despair of the times...the polarisation of society...nemesis…
redeeming part of him...he has ridiculed bush for the war he started in search of elusive weapons of mass destruction...a chimera in the desert...but being the brash person he is he will no doubt get drawn to other wars...even obama could not keep america out of wars...perhaps the world has become a theatre for armaments bashing so the the military industrial complexes can keep on chugging….few of the wars bush sr and jr fought were for oil...perhaps this triggered of a strong dislike for americans by the arabs.
wonder if any american president really has a say in deciding upon these wars. the military industrial complex is just too powerful. the presidents are figureheads...who        are under the thumbs of the powerful lobbies of armaments, finance, etc. these lobbyists operate their machiavellian moves through the members of the two houses of government. hence we see the peculiar combinations of senators and members of the HOR who vote for different bills. the house of cards really portrays this mess so wonderfully.

so at the end does it really matter who is at the helm. the major issues drive themselves. the vested interests ensure their agendas are smoothly passed. so whoever wins will have to toe the lines of the power brokers...but if trump triumphs...he will certainly add lot of colour and interest in these bleak times..

Thursday, 25 February 2016

the meaningless ban on marijuana

Strange how society has on one hand categorised as dangerous and criminal innocent people who smoke or imbibe a harmless weed like cannabis, while on the other hand much higher proportion of the populace are addicted to alcohol socially or physiologically which is certainly a much more dangerous intoxicant harmful to the user, family and society just because the liquor industry is very rich with strong lobbies. 

 

The Lancet of UK had brought out a study in 2010, where the findings of a "MCDA (multi criteria decision analysis) model showed that heroin, crack cocaine, and methamphetamine were the most harmful drugs to individuals (part scores 34, 37, and 32, respectively), whereas alcohol, heroin, and crack cocaine were the most harmful to others (46, 21, and 17, respectively). Overall, alcohol was the most harmful drug (overall harm score 72), with heroin (55) and crack cocaine (54) in second and third places.

 

Dr Nutt who was part of a joint research team of three which published the above, in his blog in 2011 wrote "Taken together we estimate that alcohol is at least twice as harmful to users than cannabis and 5 times more harmful to society. The obvious conclusion is that the current legislation criminalising cannabis users is illogical as well as inhumane and may be causing much more harm than it does good". This shows that on the harmful index, marijuana at around 26 was far below alcohol's 72. 

 

The different types intoxicants have been broadly categorised into opiates, cannabis, barbiturates, alcohol, amphetamine. Very broadly speaking, if we were to rank them on a spectrum very bad for self, family and society - alcohol emerges as the worst, followed by heroin of the opiate family, and some other derivatives of the same family, followed by barbiturates, amphetamine. Cannabis is at the bottom as the least harmful intoxicant. Based upon addictive potential vs effective to lethal dose ratio, marijuana is far less harmful than both alcohol and tobacco.

 

 

In fact, one can go a step further and argue that certain substances like peyote, hashish, dhatura have been used since time immemorial for spiritual purposes…. cosmic consciousness, self realisation, satori, nirvana…In fact in the east, especially India, millions of mystics, babas, gurus smoke a lot of ganja, opium, etc in their quest for spiritual realisation and also as a way of life. apart from them, millions of lower class and middle class people both in rural areas and cities have their daily dose of ganja, etc. None of them suffer from any abnormal behaviour in excess of what is found in other classes. in certain parts of eastern India, especially in Orissa, ganja, bhang and opium are freely taken in certain districts, towns. Even the old are administered opium regularly to help them cope with old age....

 

Fair amount of research has been carried out in this space. Some of the greatest intellectuals, artists, rock n roll and doctors who have espoused the mind expansion way of life to name a few which readily come to mind are: Dr Aldous Huxley, Dr Timothy Leary, Dr Allan Watts, Dr Allen Ginsberg, Tom Wolfe, John Lennon, Jerry Garcia, Bob Dylan, Bob Marley…. and the list goes on. The entire anti-establishment culture of the 60s was fueled by the sweet smoke of marijuana. The hippy and beat generation were the first to fight against the illegal ban of cannabis. 

 

History is replete with cycles of banning and re-allowing various psychoactive substances. Banning has never been an effective method. Humankind like in the garden of eden always craves for the forbidden fruit. Prohibition has never succeeded in any society. Tobacco, opium, alcohol, cannabis...have been prohibited at various points of history and subsequently some of them have been legally made available. Strangely cannabis which is the least harmful is still illegal in most parts of the world. 

 

With climate change on the rampage, marijuana should be the green intoxicant option over the industrial alcohol. 

 

But starting with US cannabis is staging a comeback. Presently it is legal in some form or the other in more than half the states in US. It is expected to be legalised across US within a decade. this will surely set in motion a global wave wherein most places in the world will have marijuana freely. 

 

Bob Marley who was a Rastafarian devoted his life to the spread of one love and free marijuana smoking. Am 64. Waiting for the day within my lifetime when the ban on cannabis will be lifted. More importantly the conditioning of society must change which views cannabis in a poor light whereas alcohol is socially acceptable inspite of all its negatives. 

 

The best part is that cannabis is the middle of the road psychoactive substance choice in terms of physical and psychological addiction, makes people peace loving, increases creativity, cost, least harmful to health, high lethal dose level...indeed it is the dream substance which can emancipate humankind from the morass it finds itself in in terms of violence, terror, financial collapse, economic over leverage, hyper consumerism and competition, climate collapse, high energy intensive lifestyles




Friday, 1 January 2016

Last and Final Call - COP21

1st Dec 15

Finally we are there. Here is now. Future is now. After an interminable wait the last and final call for postponing the hurtle towards the abyss of climate collapse has begun in Paris..the most beautiful and intellectual of cities..which has been the vanguard of the free world with the cry of liberty, equality, 
fraternity...in the aftermath of the dastardly terror strikes a couple of weeks ago...indeed a fitting 
metro to host this most important of conferences which may determine the future course of the planet..Paris is indeed the apt place for such discussions.

Leaders have all the strategies which can limit carbon emissions. This time the realization is perhaps at the highest in terms of sense of urgency, time running out, need for effective practical steps which will effectively reduce carbon emissions. The major focus is on reducing carbon emissions.     

12th Dec 15

COP21 talks over. Last minute midnight oil negotiations have come to an end. Couple of hours ago 
document has been released. News channels say 1.5C cap on temp increase has been agreed. What 
does it mean? Since advent of industrial society they claim average temp have risen by only 1C. But 
in my experience during the past 23 years temp in Bengaluru has risen by about 2C. Rest of India the picture is the same. Like in the x files there is a giant conspiracy by the governments to hide the truth.  

Crux of the matter is that the developing ecos would definitely like to provide electricity to their poor, but the cost of clean energy is high. The incremental cost is being sought from the so called rich 
nations. But ironically the rich nations are up their necks in debt which has crossed perilous levels. 
Indeed a catch 22 situation. 

19th Dec 15

A week over since COP21. Lot of awareness created all over the world. But as i have said earlier 
most of are no nearer the truth. Its indeed the age of confusion and obfuscation. Everyone is speaking in different tongues. Climate change which has a complex interdependent causal effect relationship 
is being now mostly attributed to carbon emissions. Its true that carbon emissions have a direct 
correlation to global temperature rise.   

1st Jan 16

Three weeks since COP21. Not much has emerged in terms of clear way forward, except the final 
draft which was an art in deal making where the diverse opinions of 160 countries were distillated 
into a HCFof options. More worrying is the approval by respective governments. Finally the 100 bn $ flow from rich to poor conveniently at the distance of 2020... So much can happen between now and then.

But in concrete terms nothing is changing at ground level. Everything is moving at cross purposes...
higher production of cars and cities trying desperately to reduce use of cars. Migration to cities 
unabated. Climate change has increased exponentially during and after COP21 ironically. Still 
skeptics all over are questioning climate evangelists. More in my next blog.    

Sunday, 1 November 2015

Mega Trends...Storms..

Mega storms and trends...

We are surely and remorselessly being sucked into more terrifying climate change induced freak weather events. First time ever a regular storm Patricia metamorphosed itself to such a monster within 24 hours breaking all records in the Western Hemisphere. Yes like veritable frogs we are living in our comfort zones of judging the future based upon the past. The events in the past few years bear a grim testimony to our likely future. So far 2015 has been the hottest ever year month by month in recorded history. Flooding events in all continents have hit new highs. Arctic melting is accelerating. Sea levels rise is compounding. CO2 emissions mounting with peak levels still about 15 years away.

Even though we know that human actions and lifestyle is squarely responsible for this catastrophe waiting to happen, most of us are  hardened sceptics living in denial mode. Also big industry and the wheels of capitalism will not slow down and restructure society to avoid the coming climate collapse. The entire edifice of capitalistic society is based upon continuous improvements and newer and better technology models of cars, consumer durables, homes, armaments, digital devices.....these have to to be sold through hyper competition as there is excess capacity in all spheres. In the process we all are trapped in our ever rising so called standards of living and keeping up with the joneses. So there is no way we can cry a halt to the inexorable turning of the wheels of doom. 

The third mega trend is that of economic fragility which has been plaguing most of the world especially the advanced economies. Greece was the canary in the mine. Most of Europe is mired in perilous stagnation, rising unemployment...US is the biggest debtor country and ironically still the largest consuming society. It's in the interest of others like China and larger emerging economies to keep the albatross US afloat. The bubble is getting larger every month. With great difficulty the US congress just about manages to agree to ever increasing caps of fiscal debt which has crossed $18 tr. If we add the corporate and individual debt of Americans, the figure is around a truly staggering $60 tr, which is 330% of US gdp. The corresponding ratio for China is a mind boggling 280%. The entire world is awash on an ocean of debt. As I have mentioned elsewhere till debt does us apart! New paradigms of economics have arisen with negative interest rates! Imploding economies and black holes....

The next mega trend is the macabre violence, terror and conflict zones all over the world. All the continents excepting Australia have pockets of conflict zones which are expanding their sphere of influence. During the past half century or so the strife has been increasing. Now with hitech weaponry the war zones have become bloody with refugees and migrants who are seeking peaceful havens like currently flowing into Europe. The big powers like US and Russia are also involved in many of these wars ostensibly to broker peace or back one of the sides in the name of justice. This has spawned several terror groups which want to take revenge for atrocities suffered by their people. In a multi polar world with US as the big brother there are so many permutation and combinations of war camps. Apart from this, violence is creeping into our everyday lives with proliferation of guns and weak or no gun control laws. At the unsettling extreme trigger happy school kids in US toting guns. Also psychotic individuals especially in advanced nations who have perpetuated mass killings. Then the certain possibility of terror groups and rogue nations possessing dirty nukes. The future is indeed fraught with diabolical scenarios. 

The final mega trend is the robotesque future we are moving towards. Computers and their ilk are gaining a stranglehold on our lives. The rapid growth of digital technology during the past 25 years is truly chilling. Now a quarter of humanity has access to the Internet. Smart phone usage is spiralling out of control. Laptops and tablets have surpassed desktops. Nano chip technology is entering into cars, household durables, entertainment, surveillance, health care..... The cloud is gaining prominence. Humans are interconnected through multi devices and the social networks... The paradigms of governance, security, teaching, learning, sales, marketing, commerce, business, manufacturing, production, health care, entertainment, finance, banking, capital markets...are undergoing inconceivable changes...ushering a digital highway to a future which only the digiterate will succeed... At this rate robots are gaining intelligence at geometric progression.... The day is not far off when the intelligence will surpass that of human..!

Future shock is now. Truly we are looking at the Kurzweillian exponential growth of artificial intelligence leading to a brave new world of robots and machine intelligence controlling humanity, climate change hurtling towards irreversible environmental degradation, neo economics where negative interests and burgeoning debt as the new norm, mounting violence with nuke crazy terrorists and tin pot dictators...The sci-fi, cli-fi movies we are seeing are harbingers of the new age. Mankind is truly caught up between Scylla and Charybdis. The final game changer could be inexorable climate change which could lead to the sixth mass extinction. The pace of climate change as seen over the past couple of years could be the tipping point leading to exponential changes. Hence the staid climate models which have been relied upon may not be good predictors for the future. Yes. Climate change is going to be a major factor which will dictate the future of humanity over the next 35 years. 






Sunday, 16 August 2015

Why strategies for carbon reduction will not succeed....2 little 2 late...

Earlier in the 20th century, there was a consensus among climate experts the 350 ppm co2 emissions would be the upper limit beyond which green house gasses would lead to significant climate changes.This level was breached by 1980. Then the next target was pegged at 400 ppm, with liberal fallback to 450 ppm depending upon the differential impact on climate pattern in different places. Based upon these end goals, varying carbon emission reduction targets have been assigned to all countries.  
According to the Presidential Climate Action Report, “In order to stabilize CO2 concentrations at about 450 ppm by 2050, global emissions would have to decline by about 60% by 2050. Industrialized countries greenhouse gas emissions would have to decline by about 80% by 2050”. The thumb-rule applied is the each year a 2 ppm co2e is acceptable. Recently in march 2015, the 400 ppm milestone mark was breached. This has sent the climate activists and environmentalists into worried huddles. At this rate by 2050, the co2e levels would probably reach 470 ppm, which would be in the red flag territory. Already climate change and extreme events are increasing exponentially. The list of extreme events during the past two years beggars all imagination spread across all continents.
The unusual freak occurrences are the severe storms which battering the US east coast, unprecedented hurricanes and twisters, flooding, earthquakes, soaring temperatures, plummeting temperatures, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, sinking cities. Climate refugees have trying to gain toehold in developed economies. Most of these refugee are from Africa which is reeling from extreme weather and dwindling agricultural production which has provided a fecund ground for breeding fundamentalists and terror.  These climate events also have to be viewed against a background of weakening global economy. Most of Europe is mired in deep debt. Except Germany and a few more economically strong economies like in Scandinavia and relatively UK, the others are just too weak to implement strong green measures or even absorb climate refugees.  
We are too deep into our hyper energy intensive lifestyles. Everyone is talking of a transition process where gradually fossil fuels will be, Apart from the high cost of reducing carbon emissions and adopting other green measures, there are a host of factors which are impeding a wholesale rewind of the high energy intensive lifestyle moat which humankind has built around themselves in the blind pursuit of  so called highly developed and technological societies which now are stifling their very creators ie humans.
All pointers are towards a sixth mass extinction.No strategy for replacing by greener sources like solar with no finite time frame. No one is talking of:
  1. Voluntary reduction of energy use and energy guzzling gadgets.
  2. Reducing and eliminating fossil fuel based energy in say five years or so.
  3. Walking to work and fulfilling all chores, thus reducing production of cars, and instead only permitting green public transport.
  4. Staying in small eco friendly self sufficient green communes, thus changing the very structure and design of cities away from high energy intensive high rises ones These monsters are soak-pits which consume copious amounts of energy for lifts, air conditioning, pumps...
  5. Not wearing suits in summer which hikes up AC costs. This list can go on ad infinitum.
The intrinsic problem or crux of the matter is that the growth of these monstrous multi hydra so called icons of human development forms the very foundation of capitalism. The continuous development of new products, some based upon minor incremental improvements, is the principle of competition which demands companies have to continuously innovate in order the survive the hyper competition. With technology changing so fast in these nanosecond times, product life cycles are shortening. And humankind is forever being tempted to buy the latest gadgets and models. Inspite of all the advancement and better quality of life, humans are always craving for more. Retail therapy is the best way 90% of upper middle class and above realise their instant nirvana.
What i am trying to drive at is we are too deeply entrenched in all the goodies capitalism offers us. Any attempt to stop, reduce or ration the goodies would be unacceptable to the populace. They would rise in revolt. The need for these goodies is too deeply ingrained like the addiction of heroin. Hence the problem of reducing co2 emissions is not as simple as only curbing fossil fuel. There are just too many vested interests and lobbies in the coal industry. There are enough reserves of coal and crude to last out perhaps another 100 years. Hence from the supply side, it is too alluring a proposition to make profits for another three generations even though margins are declining both due to over supply and the fact that best quality crude and coal, generally the low hanging fruit, has already been exploited. Too add to this grim supply side scenario US has has commercially exploiting shale gas which is fraught with its own nemesis ie the fracking method leads to earthquakes...which in some US states has compounded 1000 fold! To literally... add oil to fire... speaking tongue in cheek...US has recently repealed a 40 year old ban they had on exporting oil...hence the supply side solutions are not easy to effectively implement.
Apart from the doublespeak on supply side, there a hilarious double chaos on the demand side. On one hand, rampant urbanisation has lead to chocking roads and highways which are further being clogged by ever increasing population of cars which are the toys of doom of the human race. Now all the best car companies are manufacturing in india and china to meet the bottomless appetite for cars by the rising nouveau riche. Even though several eco friendly cars have come out, but the overwhelming suicidal demand is still for the petrol and diesel versions. On the other hand, ironically city planners and administrators encourage mass rapid transit systems. Even though high proportion of commuters use the public transport systems, many of which in the developed countries are technologically advanced hybrid vehicles, still the march of cars is unabated. Cars have symbolically become the mascot of advanced humans, even though are hastening increase of co2 ppm levels to dangerous levels.
Plus the automotive industry, which has powerful lobbies, still feels that more fuel efficient cars can still drive the car sales for at least another 25 years. Habits die hard. By and large people still yearn for fuel based cars over electric cars. To add to the mounting crisis now driverless cars are emerging. Even if we transition to hydrogen cars one day, though co2 emission is minimal and limited to production of hydrogen varying upon process, still we will need steel for the bodies and alloys for engines production processes of which are carbon intensive also. There is no respite from co2 emissions.
The demand side is too chock full of human comfort and luxuries which have become necessities and essentials such as monsters like air conditioning (emitting hydrofluorocarbons), heating, lifts, cooking gadgets.....yes indeed we are slaves to electricity. Except solar power, all the rest have harmful greenhouse gas impact. There is no way we can significantly reduce these emissions within the next 30 years. The post modern industrial structure will not allow it since it will deal a death blow to capitalism apart from our conditioned needs and wants.
There is no turning back the clock since we are too conditioned and deeply dependent upon our energy intensive lifestyles. What we are experiencing today in terms of:
1)  global warning,
2) extreme climate,
3) melting glaciers and poles,
4) rising sea levels,
5) unprecedented floods, storms, droughts,
6) drying rivers,
7) depleting aquifer levels
...is the cumulative effect of so called called progress since the industrial era started about 300 years ago. The momentum created will be impossible to arrest by the slew of half baked measures we are adopting. The root causes are not being addressed or even articulated. Too much doublespeak… double-think.... schizoid..... head buried in the sand ostrich like behaviour. Cars air conditioning are bad while new factories are being set up all the time for the rapidly growing emerging markets.  
Where are the viable alternative lifestyle solutions and strategies which can wean away humans from this morass of energy intensive urban nightmare existence? The bright lurid neon lights of mega cities are drawing them like veritable moth.  There is an urgent need for more integrated solutions like New Grammar of Life (newgrammaroflife.blogspot.in). Such solutions would seem so austere and horrifying to the celluloid sensibilities and shallow culture youth and others today living on an energy intensive digital plane, the entrenched lobbies will never let their control over the masses go. Too much is at stake. They are not at all bothered about the mid and long term impact of such profligate living. Its almost like a Sodom and Gomorrah redux.    
Apart from the above, there are many more environmental degradation issues:
  • Millions of tons of plastic under the oceans rendering mutations in fishes and endangering species
  • Disposal of nuclear waste and submarines is reaching nightmarish proportions...rivers and oceans have been converted into radiation zones, which over time are spreading and leaving in their wake dead fish and flora
  • Energy inefficient structures, buildings, cities guzzling copious energy
  • Global garbage disposal crisis. Capitalist throwaway societies will malls spewing forth goodies for forever greedy consumers, now online amazon adding more cartoons to be disposed.
  • High co2 emission industries like steel, metals, energy, transport...which are compounding exponentially...
Capitalism is in its death throes. Negative interest rates, debt spiraling out of control in country after country. But nobody is questioning the root causes. Its lurching from side to side...veering precariously towards nether-land. But the show must go on…. Continuous innovation...excess capacity...eternal sales and discounts...companies failing...mergers...and so on...the virtuous circle goes on....
In a crazy scenario like this there is no coherent policy for saving the planet from the ravages of changing climate. There is a babel of voices. Paris 2015 may achieve some contrived consensus...which may be too little too late...we are already attuned to the unthinkable changes...accepting them numbly as the new norm...there no other option....
The hypocrisy still goes on ...getting stronger all the time...thick skinned...orange is the new black...most in a opiated world...still repeating like parrots...that we should be able to contain global warming to under 2 deg C by turn of century, while the likely figure could cross 3 to 4 deg C.. The truth is always juggled around for convenience. The masses must not know the truth. Daily stories of fresh new highs / lows being reached at various places. Falling upon deaf ears.
Now at the rate at which climate is changing....it will be very difficult to delay the cataclysmic impact which is forecast by NGL to happen by 2050 to 60....35 to 45 years from now. need to work out alternative scenarios. Likely scenario:
  • No more glaciers and poles...sea levels up by 3/4 meters....many major coastal cities under water...climate refugees
  • Vast tracts of arid land in tropics...agriculture severely affected....famines...climate refugees and wars and slaves
  • change of all major seasons....severe precipitation all the time...flooding...more climate refugee
  • Most severe winter storms...snow 12-15 ft high...rendering more uninhabitable areas...again climate refugees...
  • Severe pollution...killing millions....dying cities...
  • Dry major rivers..port cities..cradles of civilization...becoming history and memories...
  • precipitation all the time...flooding...more climate refugee

Indeed a surreal clifi future at hand...thin blur between fact and fiction...another 35 years of humanity before it becomes a frightened weak species (whatever survives) dominated by robots and AI....yes the surreal contours of a future stranger than scifi and clifi is close at hand...civilization is entering its most tempestuous times....a surreal movie unfurling before us day after day...with dream like vividness......










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